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Indianapolis ColtsDaniel Jones Completions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Daniel Jones has gone over 21.5 CMP in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 21.2 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDaniel Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jones orchestrated a touchdown drive on the opening possession for a second consecutive game, capping this one with a one-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Warren. Leading 2025 Colts receiver Alec Pierce (heel) exited the game in the first half, but Jonathan Taylor kept the offense churning with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Jones connected with Laquon Treadwell for a 48-yard pass in overtime, but that drive stalled in the red zone and resulted in a game-tying field goal, which was sandwiched between a pair of Chiefs field goals in overtime to drop the Colts to 0-2 ahead of a Week 3 home game against the AFC South rival Texans.
Verdict
vs 21.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line78supports it
Consistency71supports it
Projection
17.5 CMP(×0.86 context)
L5 18.6 · L10 21.0 · med 20.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 19.0 · ceil 23.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 21.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 14% | 2/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
13thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 20.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Jones has gone over 21.5 CMP 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most CMP of 32 teams (20.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Daniel Jones research
Daniel Jones — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Jones Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Jones Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Jones Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.