Loading…
Indianapolis ColtsDaniel Jones Passing TDs
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Daniel Jones has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 1.5 PASS TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDaniel Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jones orchestrated a touchdown drive on the opening possession for a second consecutive game, capping this one with a one-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Warren. Leading 2025 Colts receiver Alec Pierce (heel) exited the game in the first half, but Jonathan Taylor kept the offense churning with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Jones connected with Laquon Treadwell for a 48-yard pass in overtime, but that drive stalled in the red zone and resulted in a game-tying field goal, which was sandwiched between a pair of Chiefs field goals in overtime to drop the Colts to 0-2 ahead of a Week 3 home game against the AFC South rival Texans.
Verdict
vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
1.2 PASS TD(×0.86 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.7 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Season14 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 1.5Current | 43% | 6/14 | |
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 0% | 0/14 | ||
| 0% | 0/14 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 2.0 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Jones has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 43% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 35.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 64.8%
Best Over
BetRivers+180
-1.3% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-204
-3.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-0.1%
Our model puts the over at 35.1% vs the market's no-vig 35.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Daniel Jones research
Daniel Jones — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Jones Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Jones Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Jones Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.