Loading…
Houston TexansDavid Montgomery
#32 · RB · 5' 11" · 230 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 42.5 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDavid Montgomery isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Groin Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
Montgomery missed Houston's last two games before a Week 8 bye, and he doesn't look like he'll be ready to return to action any sooner than Nov. 15, when the Texans face the Browns on the road. With Montgomery set to miss another game, Woody Marks is poised to maintain a lead role out of the backfield. While Montgomery was sidelined the previous two contests, Marks averaged 81.0 scrimmage yards on 18.5 touches per game.
Verdict
vs 32.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
39.4 RUSH YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 33.8 · L10 33.6 · med 32.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 21.6 · ceil 60.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 32.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 |
Situational splits
Over 32.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%3/9Low
Away63%5/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — @ LAC
Nov 8, 2026
5thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
LAC allows 61.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, David Montgomery has gone over 32.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 5th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (61.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 32.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.