Houston Texans

David Montgomery Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

David Montgomery has gone over 12.5 REC YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 10.3 REC YDS · our line

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OutDavid Montgomery isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Montgomery is positioned to serve as Houston's lead running back after arriving from Detroit via trade this offseason, and Houston appears prepared to use him in a workhorse role. Barrett praised Montgomery's physical running style, blocking ability and leadership, while emphasizing the veteran's mentality and consistency. With an upgraded offensive line and little proven competition beyond Woody Marks, Montgomery looks poised for a substantial workload, and his skill set could allow the Texans to find greater success in the red zone and in play action, per Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2.

Verdict

vs 12.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

9.9 REC YDS(×0.90 context)

L5 11.4 · L10 11.4 · med 13.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 3.2 · ceil 16.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2015 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Season15 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	10/15
	53%	8/15
	53%	8/15
12.5Current	53%	8/15
	33%	5/15
	33%	5/15
	27%	4/15

Last 15 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 12.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 12.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%7/14Low

With a teammate out

How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

C.J. Stroud out+4.2 REC YDS when he sits

Without (9g)

12.0 REC YDS

67% over 12.5

With (6g)

7.8 REC YDS

33% over 12.5

Woody Marks out+6.8 REC YDS when he sits

Without (8g)

13.5 REC YDS

75% over 12.5

With (7g)

6.7 REC YDS

29% over 12.5

Last matchup — @ CHI

Jan 4, 2026

17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

CHI allows 14.6 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, David Montgomery has gone over 12.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (14.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.