Houston Texans

David Montgomery Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.8 TGT · our line

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OutDavid Montgomery isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Montgomery is positioned to serve as Houston's lead running back after arriving from Detroit via trade this offseason, and Houston appears prepared to use him in a workhorse role. Barrett praised Montgomery's physical running style, blocking ability and leadership, while emphasizing the veteran's mentality and consistency. With an upgraded offensive line and little proven competition beyond Woody Marks, Montgomery looks poised for a substantial workload, and his skill set could allow the Texans to find greater success in the red zone and in play action, per Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.4 TGT(×0.90 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 1.9 · med 1.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2015 games

40%over

6 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%

Season15 games

40%over

6 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	15/15
1.5Current	40%	6/15
	27%	4/15
	13%	2/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%5/14Medium

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

C.J. Stroud out-0.3 TGT when he sits

Without (9g)

1.7 TGT

44% over 1.5

With (6g)

2.0 TGT

33% over 1.5

Woody Marks out-0.1 TGT when he sits

Without (8g)

1.8 TGT

50% over 1.5

With (7g)

1.9 TGT

29% over 1.5

Last matchup — @ CHI

Jan 4, 2026

9thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CHI allows 2.8 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 40% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.