Houston Texans

David Montgomery Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Iowa State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.9 TGT · our line

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OutDavid Montgomery isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Montgomery scored Houston's first two touchdowns of the season with a one-yard run in the first quarter followed by an 18-yard run in the second. The offseason trade acquisition from Detroit added a third touchdown on a seven-yard catch as the Texans pulled ahead 28-27 early in the fourth quarter, but Houston's vaunted defense failed to hold that lead. Montgomery's 23 touches in his Texans debut were more than he had in any of his 17 regular-season appearances in 2025 for Detroit, where he had to share the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs. Woody Marks had 10 touches for 40 yards in a change-of-pace role behind Montgomery, but the latter is clearly Houston's top running back heading into a Week 2 home game against the Bengals.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency1argues against it

Projection

2.0 TGT(×1.03 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 1.9 · med 1.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Season16 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	16/16
1.5Current	44%	7/16
	31%	5/16
	13%	2/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%6/15Medium

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 20, 2026

8thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CIN allows 4.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, David Montgomery has gone over 1.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.