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Houston TexansDavid Montgomery
#32 · RB · 5' 11" · 230 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 44.0 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutDavid Montgomery isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Neither Montgomery nor backfield mate Woody Marks was able to make any inroads against what looks to be a vastly improved Bengals run defense, although after also being held to 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1, it's clear Montgomery's early issues with efficiency can at least partly be blamed on the Texans' offensive line. Montgomery also saw Marks outpace him by two carries and four targets, yet that may have been largely a function of a game script that saw Houston in catch-up mode. Montgomery should revert back to a lead role in a Week 3 road divisional clash against the Colts next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 63.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 80% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line80supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
38.2 RUSH YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 33.8 · L10 37.7 · med 32.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 21.8 · ceil 60.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2017 games
18%over
3 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 6%–41%Season17 games
18%over
3 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 6%–41%Situational splits
Over 63.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/9Medium
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days19%3/16Medium
Next matchup — @ IND
Sep 27, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
IND allows 73.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, David Montgomery has gone over 63.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 18% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (73.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 32.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 18%.