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Los Angeles ChargersDavid Njoku
#85 · TE · 6' 4" · 246 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 37.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDavid Njoku isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
One of the top free agents left on the board, Njoku will continue his career on the West Coast following a nine-year stay in Cleveland. Since submitting a career-best 81-882-6 receiving line in 2023, Njoku has seen his production dip over the past two seasons while missing 11 total games to injury, but he won't turn 30 years old until July and still profiles as an above-average pass-catching talent at tight end. However, after seeing his target counts drop in the second half of the 2025 season while rookie Harold Fannin emerged as a focal point in the Cleveland passing attack, Njoku will face competition for reps from another impressive young tight end in Oronde Gadsden as he moves on to Los Angeles. Njoku will at least benefit from a major upgrade in quarterback play with the Justin Herbert-led Chargers offense, and there could still be room for both Gadsden and Njoku to earn meaningful volume in the passing game in light of the lack of established depth at wide receiver behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.
Verdict
vs 37.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
38.1 REC YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 36.6 · L10 37.1 · med 37.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 29.8 · ceil 40.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 37.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 37.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Justin Herbert out+1.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
38.0 REC YDS
33% over 37.5
With (4g)
36.5 REC YDS
50% over 37.5
Omarion Hampton out-3.8 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
35.5 REC YDS
25% over 37.5
With (3g)
39.3 REC YDS
67% over 37.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Oct 26, 2025
11thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NE allows 28.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, David Njoku has gone over 37.5 REC YDS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 15.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.