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Los Angeles ChargersDavid Njoku Receptions
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
David Njoku has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.9 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDavid Njoku isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
One of the top free agents left on the board, Njoku will continue his career on the West Coast following a nine-year stay in Cleveland. Since submitting a career-best 81-882-6 receiving line in 2023, Njoku has seen his production dip over the past two seasons while missing 11 total games to injury, but he won't turn 30 years old until July and still profiles as an above-average pass-catching talent at tight end. However, after seeing his target counts drop in the second half of the 2025 season while rookie Harold Fannin emerged as a focal point in the Cleveland passing attack, Njoku will face competition for reps from another impressive young tight end in Oronde Gadsden as he moves on to Los Angeles. Njoku will at least benefit from a major upgrade in quarterback play with the Justin Herbert-led Chargers offense, and there could still be room for both Gadsden and Njoku to earn meaningful volume in the passing game in light of the lack of established depth at wide receiver behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency46neutral
Projection
4.0 REC(×1.02 context)
L5 4.0 · L10 3.9 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 4.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 3.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Justin Herbert out-0.3 REC when he sits
Without (3g)
3.7 REC
67% over 3.5
With (4g)
4.0 REC
50% over 3.5
Omarion Hampton out-0.8 REC when he sits
Without (4g)
3.5 REC
50% over 3.5
With (3g)
4.3 REC
67% over 3.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Oct 26, 2025
12thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
NE allows 2.7 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, David Njoku has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More David Njoku research
David Njoku — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Njoku Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Njoku Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Njoku Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.