Los Angeles Chargers

David Njoku Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

David Njoku has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 9 decided games (22%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Miami
Experience: 13 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutDavid Njoku isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Not Specified Lower Leg Not Specified
Est. return:: Nov 8, 2026

Njoku landed on IR after sustaining a fibula injury in Week 2, but the tight end's looming return to practice should provide a nice boost to a Chargers' TE corps that also includes Oronde Gadsden and Charlie Kolar. In his only full game with the team (Week 1 versus the Cardinals), Njoku recorded a 55 percent snap share en route to catching all five of his targets for 58 yards. If he can approach that level of production once he's back in the lineup, Njoku could resurface as a fantasy option as the season rolls along.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 81% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line81supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.88 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

22%over

2 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%

Last 209 games

22%over

2 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%

Season9 games

22%over

2 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–55%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	22%	2/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%2/8Low

Next matchup — vs HOU

Nov 8, 2026

28thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

HOU allows 0.1 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, David Njoku has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 9 decided times (22%) — versus 22% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 28th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 22%.