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New England PatriotsDeMario Douglas
#3 · WR · 5' 8" · 185 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 30.9 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 34.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsCool underFireFactor 40/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
31.3 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 26.6 · L10 25.2 · med 31.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 9.4 · ceil 37.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2015 games
33%over
5 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%Season15 games
33%over
5 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%Situational splits
Over 34.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away14%1/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days36%5/14Medium
Next matchup — @ JAX
Sep 27, 2026
19thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
JAX allows 42.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, DeMario Douglas has gone over 34.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 33% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (42.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 25.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 20.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.3%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-4.4% EV
Best Under
Caesars-108
-5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-9.4%
Our model puts the over at 41.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (20.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.