Cleveland Browns

Denzel Boston Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Denzel Boston has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 1.0 REC TD · our line

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OutDenzel Boston isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

It wasn't until the third play of the fourth quarter that Boston made his first NFL catch, a 13-yard pass from Deshaun Watson, before the duo connected on a 46-yard touchdown pass on the first play following the two-minute warning. Boston finished Sunday's game as the Browns' leader in receiving yards while fellow rookie KC Concepcion led the team in catches (four) and targets (five). There figures to be some growing pains for the Browns' offense this season given the amount of young talent. Cleveland will stay on the road for a Week 2 matchup against Tampa Bay on Sept. 20.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

0.9 REC TD(×0.92 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ TB

Sep 20, 2026

20thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

TB allows 0.0 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 1 games, Denzel Boston has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.