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Baltimore RavensDerrick Henry
#22 · RB · 6' 2" · 252 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 76.6 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDerrick Henry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Joe Fagnano under center, the Jaguars unsurprisingly had the luxury of loading up to slow down Henry, and Jacksonville already came into the contest boasting an elite run defense to begin with. Henry therefore ran into a proverbial brick wall for most of the night, and he finished under 60 rushing yards for the fourth consecutive game. However, help is on the way, as impending trade acquisition Jacoby Brissett could be ready to make his first start for the Ravens as soon as a Week 10 home matchup against the Chargers on Monday night, Nov. 16.
Verdict
vs 68.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency36argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
55.3 RUSH YDS(×0.82 context)
L5 63.0 · L10 76.6 · med 68.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 55.4 · ceil 94.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 68.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 68.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — vs JAX
Nov 6, 2026
32ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
JAX allows 26.4 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Derrick Henry has gone over 68.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 32nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (26.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 29.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 70.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.5%
Best Over
Caesars-108
-4.7% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-115
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-18.4%
Our model puts the over at 31.1% vs the market's no-vig 49.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (70.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.