Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Derrick Henry has gone over 0.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.9 REC · our line

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OutDerrick Henry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Henry and other Ravens have expressed excitement about Doyle's scheme, with the 32-year-old running back telling reporters this offseason that "change can be good," and "everything is new, so we're all just trying to learn." Quarterback Lamar Jackson and wide receiver Zay Flowers made stronger comments during the offseason program, both praising Doyle for originality/creativity. The Ravens lost some key pieces of their running game this offseason, namely C Tyler Linderbaum and FB Patrick Ricard, but they also improved at the guard spots and still have a strong core of veteran standouts on both sides of the ball. Henry finished second in the league in rushing yards each of his first two seasons in Baltimore, and after a red-hot finish to the 2025 season, he's again going in the second round of most fantasy drafts.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2013 games

62%over

8 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%

Season13 games

62%over

8 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	62%	8/13
	23%	3/13
	8%	1/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%4/7Low

Away67%4/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days58%7/12Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Lamar Jackson out-1.0 REC when he sits

Without (4g)

0.3 REC

25% over 0.5

With (9g)

1.2 REC

78% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ PIT

Jan 5, 2026

15thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

PIT allows 2.1 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 34 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Derrick Henry has gone over 0.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 15th-most REC of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.