Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Derrick Henry has gone over 1.5 TGT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 1.3 TGT · our line

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OutDerrick Henry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Much like he'd done at the expense of the Bills in Week 1 of last season, Henry turned in one of his signature performances right out of the gate, and he struck for his first two touchdowns in the first half from four and 32 yards away. The superstar running back added a three-yard scoring run early in the fourth quarter, and he consistently ripped off chunk gains throughout the afternoon at the expense of an overwhelmed Colts front. Henry's workload won't change under new head coach Jesse Minter if Sunday is any indication, and the perennial Pro Bowl back carries a stellar outlook for a Week 2 home matchup against a Saints defense that the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs gashed for 156 rushing yards and two touchdowns Sunday.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)92supports it

Projection vs line60supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.3 TGT(×1.19 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2014 games

36%over

5 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%

Season14 games

36%over

5 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	12/14
1.5Current	36%	5/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — TGT per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%5/13Low

Next matchup — vs NO

Sep 20, 2026

2ndof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

NO allows 5.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Derrick Henry has gone over 1.5 TGT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 36% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most TGT of 32 teams (5.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.