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Atlanta FalconsDrake London
#5 · WR · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 78.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDrake London isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Michael Penix was picked off four times by the Buccaneers' defense throughout the rainy afternoon while completing only 33.3 percent of his passes, so London's near career-worst numbers were a bit more understandable in that context. The talented wideout had come into the day with at least 62 receiving yards in five straight contests, and he should have a chance to bounce back when the Falcons face off with the Bengals in Madrid next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 64.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
76.0 REC YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 70.0 · L10 78.0 · med 64.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 37.8 · ceil 109.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 64.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 64.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs CIN
Nov 8, 2026
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CIN allows 37.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Drake London has gone over 64.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 54.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 76.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
DraftKings-114
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-110
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.3%
Our model puts the over at 57.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (77.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.