
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Drake London has gone over 12.5 FS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
Michael Penix was picked off four times by the Buccaneers' defense throughout the rainy afternoon while completing only 33.3 percent of his passes, so London's near career-worst numbers were a bit more understandable in that context. The talented wideout had come into the day with at least 62 receiving yards in five straight contests, and he should have a chance to bounce back when the Falcons face off with the Bengals in Madrid next Sunday.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 12.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Over 12.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
CIN allows 8.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
ToughOver his last 8 games, Drake London has gone over 12.5 FS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (8.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 8.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Receptions hit rates and trends.
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Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.