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Atlanta FalconsDrake London Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Drake London has gone over 6.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 6.4 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDrake London isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
London's reception, receiving yardage and target totals, modest as they were, all led the Falcons on an afternoon where Cooper Rush and Jack Strand combined to throw for 145 yards and toss three interceptions. Sunday's production pushed London's early-season line to 6-80-0 on 10 targets, but those numbers could be due for a nice boost as soon as Thursday's Week 3 road matchup against the Packers if either Michael Penix (knee) or Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) is deemed available for that contest.
Verdict
vs 6.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency42neutral
Projection
5.1 REC(×0.90 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 6.4 · med 6.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 9/10 | ||
| 70% | 7/10 | ||
| 60% | 6/10 | ||
| 6.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 20% | 2/10 | ||
| 10% | 1/10 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
GB allows 5.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Drake London has gone over 6.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC of 32 teams (5.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 5.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.2%
Best Over
Caesars+108
-4.7% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-126
-2.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-14.2%
Our model puts the over at 31.6% vs the market's no-vig 45.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Drake London research
Drake London — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
London Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
London Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
London Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.