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Cincinnati BengalsDrew Sample
#89 · TE · 6' 5" · 260 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 14.8 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutDrew Sample isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sample was on the field for 42 of Cincinnati's 64 offensive snaps in Week 1, easily pacing Bengals tight ends in playing time. He has never been a truly explosive pass-catching threat, but a sustained high catch rate and regular playing time should keep him in the mix in a crowded passing attack.
Verdict
vs 7.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 82% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line82supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
17.0 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 18.6 · L10 14.8 · med 15.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 9.0 · ceil 19.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 108 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Last 208 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Season8 games
75%over
6 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%Situational splits
Over 7.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days86%6/7Low
Next matchup — @ PIT
Sep 27, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
PIT allows 23.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Drew Sample has gone over 7.5 REC YDS 6 of 8 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (23.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 9.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (9.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.