Cincinnati Bengals

Drew Sample Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Drew Sample has gone over 2.5 FS in 6 of his last 8 decided games (75%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.1 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutDrew Sample isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Sample was on the field for 42 of Cincinnati's 64 offensive snaps in Week 1, easily pacing Bengals tight ends in playing time. He has never been a truly explosive pass-catching threat, but a sustained high catch rate and regular playing time should keep him in the mix in a crowded passing attack.

Verdict

vs 2.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line75supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

4.3 FS(×1.00 context)

L5 4.1 · L10 4.1 · med 4.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.1 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

100%over

5 over · 0 under

Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%

Last 108 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Last 208 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Season8 games

75%over

6 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 41%–93%

Last 8 games — FS per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days86%6/7Low

Next matchup — @ HOU

Sep 20, 2026

5thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

HOU allows 9.8 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 8 games, Drew Sample has gone over 2.5 FS 6 of 8 decided times (75%) — versus 75% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 5th-most FS of 32 teams (9.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.