Cincinnati Bengals

Drew Sample Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Drew Sample has gone over 2.5 TGT in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.4 TGT · our line

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OutDrew Sample isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Sample logged 36 snaps on offense in the win over Houston, finishing ahead of Erick All (25) and Mike Gesicki (21). However, after catching three passes in the 33-27 victory over the Buccaneers in Week 1, he wasn't targeted in Week 2. The 30-year-old veteran has spent his entire career with the Bengals since entering the NFL in 2019, most recently finishing the 2025 campaign with 15 catches (20 targets) for 106 yards and one touchdown. While Sample could find the end zone at some point this season, he's not expected to play a pivotal role on the receiving end. That likely won't change even if Gesicki or All aren't available, considering Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown should continue doing most of the heavy lifting on offense.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency66supports it

Projection

2.6 TGT(×1.03 context)

L5 2.4 · L10 2.4 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 208 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Season8 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	100%	8/8
2.5Current	38%	3/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Next matchup — @ PIT

Sep 27, 2026

26thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

PIT allows 2.3 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Drew Sample has gone over 2.5 TGT 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 26th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.