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Denver BroncosEvan Engram
#1 · TE · 6' 3" · 240 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 30.0 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutEvan Engram isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
It was a miserable performance by the Broncos' offense in Monday's regular-season opener, though Engram helped Denver tie things up at 7-7 late in the first quarter after hauling in a 19-yard touchdown pass from Bo Nix. Engram led the Broncos in receiving yards and finished second in targets behind Pat Bryant (six). Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton were both held in check by the Chiefs' defense, and while Engram isn't considered a centerpiece to the Broncos' offense, the veteran tight end could thrive in games against teams that opt to hone in on Denver's top wideouts. Up next is a Week 2 tilt against the Jaguars, whose defense limited second-year tight end Harold Fannin to a 2-21-0 receiving line on only two targets.
Verdict
vs 24.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
26.8 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 27.0 · L10 30.7 · med 27.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 13.4 · ceil 42.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
59%over
10 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–78%Season17 games
59%over
10 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–78%Situational splits
Over 24.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%10/16Medium
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LAR allows 15.5 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Evan Engram has gone over 24.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 59% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (15.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 18.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 24.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.4%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-6.6% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+4.0%
Our model puts the over at 53.6% vs the market's no-vig 49.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (24.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
- BetMGMline 22.5over rate 59%edge 0
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.