Denver Broncos

Evan Engram Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Evan Engram has gone over 6.5 FS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ole Miss
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 6.5 FS · our line

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OutEvan Engram isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Engram could benefit from decreased defensive attention as opponents focus on containing Waddle. Per Chad Jensen of SI.com, Engram seems to have earned more trust from Denver's coaching staff compared to his first year with the team, and the veteran tight end enjoyed a strong minicamp in June. Rookie fifth-round pick Justin Joly was the most notable offseason addition to a Broncos tight end room that also includes Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins and Lucas Krull.

Verdict

vs 6.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency3argues against it

Projection

4.8 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 5.0 · L10 5.1 · med 4.8

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.2 · ceil 9.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	12/16
	69%	11/16
	63%	10/16
6.5Current	50%	8/16
	33%	5/15
	25%	4/16
	19%	3/16

Last 16 games — FS per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home45%5/11Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.K. Dobbins out-0.9 FS when he sits

Without (8g)

6.0 FS

38% over 6.5

With (8g)

6.9 FS

63% over 6.5

Last matchup — vs NE

Jan 25, 2026

14thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

NE allows 6.6 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Evan Engram has gone over 6.5 FS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 14th-most FS of 32 teams (6.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.