Denver Broncos

Evan Engram Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Evan Engram has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ole Miss
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutEvan Engram isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Engram's five-yard catch early in the second quarter was nullified by an illegal formation penalty. The veteran tight end didn't show up in the box score until his 17-yard grab midway through the fourth quarter, which helped lead to a three-yard rushing touchdown by rookie Jonah Coleman three plays later. Engram was listed as a co-starter at tight end alongside Adam Trautman, with the former playing 32 of 62 offensive snaps (51.6 percent). Engram's offensive production figures to fluctuate on a week-to-week basis, especially with Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton commanding most of the targets from Bo Nix. The Broncos will welcome in the Rams for Week 3 on Sept. 27.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 86% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line86supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2017 games

12%over

2 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 3%–34%

Season17 games

12%over

2 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 3%–34%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	12%	2/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/11Medium

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days13%2/16Medium

Next matchup — vs LAR

Sep 28, 2026

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

LAR allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Evan Engram has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 12% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 12%.