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New York JetsGarrett Wilson
#5 · WR · 6' 0" · 183 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 65.8 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGarrett Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
"This is probably one of the offenses that I'm going to look back on in a few years and love the most," Wilson said Thursday, adding that he appreciates the empowering nature of Reich's approach, which leaves more decisions in receivers' hands during plays. Wilson overcame subpar coaching and quarterback play to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three NFL seasons, but the 2022 first-round pick had just 395 receiving yards in 2025 while missing 10 games due to a knee injury, from which Wilson has since recovered.
Verdict
vs 67.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency31argues against it
Projection
60.5 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 60.0 · L10 65.8 · med 76.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 50.0 · ceil 84.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 |
Situational splits
Over 67.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Last matchup — vs DEN
Oct 12, 2025
27thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DEN allows 37.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Garrett Wilson has gone over 67.5 REC YDS 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 27.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.