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New York JetsGarrett Wilson
#5 · WR · 6' 0" · 183 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 66.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGarrett Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Wilson broke a 7-7 tie with a five-yard touchdown catch in the third quarter, but the Jets ultimately failed to close the game out after taking a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Adonai Mitchell led the Jets with 12 targets and tied Breece Hall for the team receiving yards lead at 63. Wilson figures to operate as the team's top pass catcher most weeks, as he did in the season-opening win over the Titans, and the 2022 first-round pick has accounted for Geno Smith's lone touchdown pass through two games. Up next for Wilson and the Jets is a juicy Week 3 matchup against the struggling Lions secondary.
Verdict
vs 65.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line37argues against it
Consistency39argues against it
Projection
53.7 REC YDS(×0.85 context)
L5 60.4 · L10 66.4 · med 75.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 52.8 · ceil 83.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 65.5Current | 63% | 5/8 | |
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 |
Situational splits
Over 65.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DET allows 72.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Garrett Wilson has gone over 65.5 REC YDS 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (72.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 24.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (66.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.