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New York JetsGarrett Wilson Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Garrett Wilson has gone over 9.5 TGT in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Targets · season avg 9.3 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Garrett Wilson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Concussion Concussion
Per Eric Allen of the Jets' official site, Wilson experienced symptoms of a concussion when he was evaluated Monday after taking a hard hit near the end of Sunday's 38-33 loss to the Jets. As a result, Wilson won't practice Wednesday, and his status for Sunday's road game against the Chiefs will need to be tracked closely in the coming days. If Wilson ends up being sidelined this weekend, added targets could be available for wideouts Omar Cooper, Adonai Mitchell and Isaiah Williams and tight ends Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq.
Verdict
vs 9.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 39% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line39argues against it
Consistency51neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
8.8 TGT(×0.92 context)
L5 9.8 · L10 9.3 · med 9.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 7.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 5/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ KC
Nov 8, 2026
24thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 5.1 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Garrett Wilson has gone over 9.5 TGT 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Garrett Wilson research
Garrett Wilson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Wilson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Wilson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Wilson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.