New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Garrett Wilson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 8 decided games (63%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TD · our line

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OutGarrett Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wilson broke a 7-7 tie with a five-yard touchdown catch in the third quarter, but the Jets ultimately failed to close the game out after taking a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Adonai Mitchell led the Jets with 12 targets and tied Breece Hall for the team receiving yards lead at 63. Wilson figures to operate as the team's top pass catcher most weeks, as he did in the season-opening win over the Titans, and the 2022 first-round pick has accounted for Geno Smith's lone touchdown pass through two games. Up next for Wilson and the Jets is a juicy Week 3 matchup against the struggling Lions secondary.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×0.85 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Last 208 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Season8 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	63%	5/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Next matchup — @ DET

Sep 27, 2026

13thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

DET allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 8 games, Garrett Wilson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 13th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.