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Dallas CowboysGeorge Pickens Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
George Pickens has gone over 5.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Georgia
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 6.0 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGeorge Pickens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Pickens finished second in receptions and targets on the afternoon for the Cowboys, but he wasn't very efficient on a per-catch basis. The star wideout saw CeeDee Lamb take priority Sunday, with the latter finishing with an 8-153-2 line on nine targets. Pickens remains a critical component of a high-upside Cowboys air attack, however, and his body of work last season supports the notion a breakout performance may be imminent.
Verdict
vs 5.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency45neutral
Projection
5.2 REC(×0.97 context)
L5 4.6 · L10 5.8 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 16/16 | ||
| 88% | 14/16 | ||
| 75% | 12/16 | ||
| 5.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%9/15Medium
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
BAL allows 5.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, George Pickens has gone over 5.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 56% across the full season. BAL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC of 32 teams (5.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 5.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 43.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 56.8%
Best Over
Hard Rock Bet+120
-5.0% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-148
-4.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.1%
Our model puts the over at 48.3% vs the market's no-vig 43.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More George Pickens research
George Pickens — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Pickens Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Pickens Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Pickens Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.