Dallas Cowboys

George Pickens Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

George Pickens has gone over 9.5 TGT in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 9.0 TGT · our line

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OutGeorge Pickens isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Pickens has voiced his willingness to play on the one-year franchise tag, so Wednesday's deadline passing without a new contract doesn't come as a surprise. Playing for a long-term deal or future free-agency payday should only reinforce his fantasy appeal as one of the top downfield and red-zone targets for Dak Prescott (knee), and alongside CeeDee Lamb, Pickens again will form one of the top one-two punches at wideout in the NFL. The Cowboys managed Pickens' reps at mandatory minicamp in June, but by all accounts he will have no limitations at the start of training camp other than a normal ramp-up period.

Verdict

vs 9.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 77% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line77supports it

Consistency61supports it

Projection

7.7 TGT(×0.93 context)

L5 8.4 · L10 8.6 · med 9.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 7.8 · ceil 11.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2014 games

29%over

4 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–55%

Season14 games

29%over

4 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–55%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	79%	11/14
	79%	11/14
	79%	11/14
9.5Current	29%	4/14
	29%	4/14
	7%	1/14
	7%	1/14

Last 14 games — TGT per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%2/8Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days31%4/13Medium

Last matchup — @ WSH

Dec 25, 2025

7thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

WSH allows 5.9 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 53 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, George Pickens has gone over 9.5 TGT 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 29% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 7th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.