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Tennessee TitansGunnar Helm
#84 · TE · 6' 5" · 241 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 31.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGunnar Helm isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Helm led the team in targets while he was able to register a new career-high 76 receiving yards in the contest. The tight end has now reeled in eight passes over the last two weeks after he caught nine of 13 targets for 60 yards over the first six games of the 2026 campaign. Helm will have a tough test against the Jaguars in Week 10 after the team's bye week in Week 9.
Verdict
vs 28.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency8argues against it
Projection
37.0 REC YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 30.2 · L10 32.6 · med 26.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 18.2 · ceil 43.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 28.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Cam Ward out-5.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
29.9 REC YDS
56% over 28.5
With (4g)
35.5 REC YDS
25% over 28.5
Tony Pollard out-5.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
29.9 REC YDS
56% over 28.5
With (4g)
35.5 REC YDS
25% over 28.5
Last matchup — @ CIN
Nov 1, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
CIN allows 44.4 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Gunnar Helm has gone over 28.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.