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Tennessee TitansGunnar Helm Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Gunnar Helm has gone over 3.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.7 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGunnar Helm isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Helm led the team in targets while he was able to register a new career-high 76 receiving yards in the contest. The tight end has now reeled in eight passes over the last two weeks after he caught nine of 13 targets for 60 yards over the first six games of the 2026 campaign. Helm will have a tough test against the Jaguars in Week 10 after the team's bye week in Week 9.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
3.8 REC(×1.02 context)
L5 3.2 · L10 3.8 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Season13 games
62%over
8 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–82%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 3.5Current | 62% | 8/13 | |
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days58%7/12Low
With a teammate out
How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Cam Ward out+0.3 REC when he sits
Without (9g)
3.8 REC
67% over 3.5
With (4g)
3.5 REC
50% over 3.5
Tony Pollard out+0.3 REC when he sits
Without (9g)
3.8 REC
67% over 3.5
With (4g)
3.5 REC
50% over 3.5
Last matchup — @ CIN
Nov 1, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
CIN allows 3.5 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Gunnar Helm has gone over 3.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC of 32 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.
More Gunnar Helm research
Gunnar Helm — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Helm Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Helm Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Helm Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.