Tennessee Titans

Gunnar Helm Targets

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Gunnar Helm has gone over 4.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.5 TGT · our line

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OutGunnar Helm isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Helm set a franchise rookie tight end record with 44 catches for 357 yards and two touchdowns while suiting up for 16 regular-season games in 2025. Added competition may limit his fantasy ceiling, but a strong offseason would give Helm a chance to earn a larger role in Tennessee's offense, and the departure of Chig Okonkwo for the Commanders opens up notable receiving opportunities. Helm appears the favorite to win the No. 1 tight end job during training camp, with Daniel Bellinger and Kylen Granson fitting into complementary roles.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency44neutral

Projection

5.0 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 5.2 · L10 4.5 · med 4.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 5.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
	100%	10/10
	60%	6/10
4.5Current	50%	5/10
	20%	2/10
	20%	2/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — vs KC

Dec 21, 2025

30thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

KC allows 2.9 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 32 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Gunnar Helm has gone over 4.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 30th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.