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Detroit LionsJahmyr Gibbs
#0 · RB · 5' 9" · 202 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 110.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJahmyr Gibbs isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Gibbs and the Lions started relatively slowly against the Vikings' aggressive defense, netting just six first-half points. However, Gibbs continued to plug away against Minnesota's talented front, and he eventually began breaking through for multiple productive runs. Gibbs warmed up for a big second half with a 19-yard scamper just before halftime, and he went on to add a game-long 30-yard run for his one touchdown in the latter portion of the third quarter. Gibbs then helped seal the victory with gains of 17, nine and nine yards on Detroit's next-to-last drive, as well as his final 28 rushing yards of the day on the final possession. The star back ultimately finished with his second-highest rushing yardage total of the season and third of greater than 150 yards, affording him massive momentum heading into a favorable Week 9 road matchup against the Dolphins next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 115.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency34argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
129.3 RUSH YDS(×1.11 context)
L5 113.0 · L10 110.4 · med 116.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 61.4 · ceil 152.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 115.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 115.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
11thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIA allows 51.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jahmyr Gibbs has gone over 115.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (51.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 43.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 97.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
Caesars-113
-6.1% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-115
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+14.5%
Our model puts the over at 64.3% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (97.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.