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Dallas CowboysJake Ferguson
#87 · TE · 6' 5" · 250 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 42.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJake Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ferguson signed a four-year, $50 million extension with Dallas last offseason, so the 27-year-old remains positioned as Dak Prescott's top target at the tight end position for the foreseeable future. He caught 82 passes for 600 yards and eight touchdowns while suiting up for all 17 regular-season games last year, giving him a steady fantasy floor through volume and red-zone usage. It's worth noting, though, that Ferguson's average depth of catch has dropped in three consecutive seasons, from 10.7 yards in 2023 to 8.4 in 2024, then just 7.3 yards per catch in 2025.
Verdict
vs 40.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
32.3 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 37.8 · L10 37.3 · med 38.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 20.6 · ceil 59.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 40.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 40.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Last matchup — vs LAC
Dec 21, 2025
21stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LAC allows 25.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 30 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jake Ferguson has gone over 40.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. LAC has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 21st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (25.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 21.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.