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Dallas CowboysJake Ferguson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jake Ferguson has gone over 11.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 12.7 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJake Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ferguson along with quarterback Dak Prescott, amongst others, did not play during the preseason, and the team never really got into a groove on offense Week 1. The tight end remains the unquestioned No. 1 option at his position with Dallas, and he'll have a chance to be more involved Week 2 against Washington.
Verdict
vs 11.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
9.2 FS(×0.97 context)
L5 7.4 · L10 11.9 · med 9.9
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.6 · ceil 19.5
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 11.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 11.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — vs WSH
Sep 20, 2026
2ndof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends
WSH allows 23.7 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jake Ferguson has gone over 11.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 2nd-most FS of 32 teams (23.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.
More Jake Ferguson research
Jake Ferguson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Ferguson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Ferguson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Ferguson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.