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Dallas CowboysJake Ferguson Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jake Ferguson has gone over 4.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 5.6 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJake Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After a quiet Week 1 against the Giants in which he caught just two passes for six scoreless yards, Ferguson bounced back with a pair of red-zone touchdowns against Washington. His four targets were still just fourth on the team, tied with Javonte Williams and behind CeeDee Lamb (nine), George Pickens (eight) and Ryan Flournoy (six) on a day Dak Prescott attempted 31 passes. Ferguson is shaping up as a touchdown-or-bust fantasy tight end headed into Week 3 versus Baltimore.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency21argues against it
Projection
4.4 REC(×0.97 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 4.3 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.8 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
67%over
10 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–85%Season15 games
67%over
10 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–85%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 93% | 14/15 | ||
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 4.5Current | 67% | 10/15 | |
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 33% | 5/15 | ||
| 13% | 2/15 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days64%9/14Medium
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
20thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
BAL allows 2.0 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jake Ferguson has gone over 4.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 67% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 20th-most REC of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.1%
Best Over
BetMGM-115
-4.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-103
-3.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.6%
Our model puts the over at 53.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Jake Ferguson research
Jake Ferguson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Ferguson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Ferguson Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Ferguson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.