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Dallas CowboysJake Ferguson
#87 · TE · 6' 5" · 250 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wisconsin
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 42.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJake Ferguson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After a quiet Week 1 against the Giants in which he caught just two passes for six scoreless yards, Ferguson bounced back with a pair of red-zone touchdowns against Washington. His four targets were still just fourth on the team, tied with Javonte Williams and behind CeeDee Lamb (nine), George Pickens (eight) and Ryan Flournoy (six) on a day Dak Prescott attempted 31 passes. Ferguson is shaping up as a touchdown-or-bust fantasy tight end headed into Week 3 versus Baltimore.
Verdict
vs 40.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
36.5 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 34.4 · L10 36.0 · med 34.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 22.2 · ceil 58.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 40.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 40% | 6/15 |
Situational splits
Over 40.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — vs BAL
Sep 27, 2026
18thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
BAL allows 21.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jake Ferguson has gone over 40.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. BAL has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 18th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 20.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 27.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.3% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-110
-4.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-6.6%
Our model puts the over at 43.3% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (27.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.