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Philadelphia EaglesJalen Hurts
#1 · QB · 6' 1" · 223 lb · 18 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 18 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 204.7 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Hurts isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Both picks led to points for the Titans, including a fourth-quarter field goal that put the home side up 20-17 with less than two minutes left. Hurts atoned for his mistakes, however, leading a nine-play, 65-yard drive that was capped by a three-yard TD strike to Darius Cooper that won the game. Hurts has already thrown five touchdowns in two games after tossing a career-high 25 in 16 regular-season contests in 2025, and he'll look to keep that momentum going in a Week 3 road trip to Chicago.
Verdict
vs 194.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency47neutral
Projection
214.5 PASS YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 186.0 · L10 200.7 · med 194.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 141.8 · ceil 273.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 194.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 |
Situational splits
Over 194.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%9/17Medium
Next matchup — @ CHI
Sep 29, 2026
9thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CHI allows 252.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jalen Hurts has gone over 194.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 9th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (252.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 64.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 212.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)+7.9%
Our model puts the over at 57.8% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (212.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.