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Miami DolphinsJalen Tolbert
#1 · WR · 6' 1" · 195 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Alabama
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 27.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Tolbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Miami's main free-agent additions to the wide receiver corps after trading Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos and cutting Tyreek Hill (ACL) were Tolbert and Tutu Atwell, who joined incumbent 2024 sixth-round pick Malik Washington atop a wide open depth chart. Those veterans being joined by rookie third-round picks Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell (ACL), as well as fifth-rounder Kevin Coleman, now muddles the breakdown of available targets, especially in what seems like a run-first offense headlined by RB De'Von Achane and new dual-threat QB Malik Willis. Tolbert still figures to get every opportunity to compete for a starting role this offseason, but he and Atwell signed just one-year prove-it deals with Miami, so the team has greater incentive to develop Douglas, Bell and Coleman.
Verdict
vs 23.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
33.8 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 35.8 · L10 27.9 · med 24.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.0 · ceil 43.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 23.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
De'Von Achane out-16.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
18.3 REC YDS
67% over 23.5
With (4g)
35.0 REC YDS
50% over 23.5
Last matchup — @ WSH
Dec 25, 2025
4thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 49.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 53 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jalen Tolbert has gone over 23.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (49.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.