Miami Dolphins

Jalen Tolbert Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen Tolbert has gone over 4.5 FS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Alabama
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 6.1 FS · our line

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OutJalen Tolbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Miami's main free-agent additions to the wide receiver corps after trading Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos and cutting Tyreek Hill (ACL) were Tolbert and Tutu Atwell, who joined incumbent 2024 sixth-round pick Malik Washington atop a wide open depth chart. Those veterans being joined by rookie third-round picks Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell (ACL), as well as fifth-rounder Kevin Coleman, now muddles the breakdown of available targets, especially in what seems like a run-first offense headlined by RB De'Von Achane and new dual-threat QB Malik Willis. Tolbert still figures to get every opportunity to compete for a starting role this offseason, but he and Atwell signed just one-year prove-it deals with Miami, so the team has greater incentive to develop Douglas, Bell and Coleman.

Verdict

vs 4.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line73supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

7.5 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 7.6 · L10 6.1 · med 5.4

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.8 · ceil 9.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
	86%	6/7
	71%	5/7
4.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7
	29%	2/7

Last 7 games — FS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%4/6Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

De'Von Achane out-2.8 FS when he sits

Without (3g)

4.5 FS

67% over 4.5

With (4g)

7.3 FS

50% over 4.5

Last matchup — @ WSH

Dec 25, 2025

5thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

WSH allows 10.8 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 53 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jalen Tolbert has gone over 4.5 FS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most FS of 32 teams (10.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.