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Miami DolphinsJalen Tolbert Targets
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jalen Tolbert has gone over 3.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Alabama
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 4.3 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJalen Tolbert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Coach's Decision Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Tolbert will continue to be a healthy scratch for the Dolphins as the team rides with its young talent at wide receiver. Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell and Kevin Coleman will continue to suit up behind the primary option, Malik Washington.
Verdict
vs 3.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency13argues against it
Projection
4.6 TGT(×1.01 context)
L5 4.8 · L10 4.3 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 3.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
KC allows 5.2 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jalen Tolbert has gone over 3.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most TGT of 32 teams (5.2 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Jalen Tolbert research
Jalen Tolbert — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Tolbert Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Tolbert Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Tolbert Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.