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Detroit LionsJameson Williams
#1 · WR · 6' 1" · 184 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 79.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJameson Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Williams produced modest numbers for the second time in as many games to open the season, and the speedy wideout didn't even record his second reception until just before the two-minute warning in the second half. Both of Williams' catches Thursday went for first downs, but he saw a sizable reduction from the nine targets he'd logged in the season-opening overtime victory against the Saints on Sunday. The 2022 first-round pick will look to put together his first standout performance of the season in a Week 3 home matchup against the Jets on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 72.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
82.2 REC YDS(×1.17 context)
L5 71.2 · L10 86.9 · med 81.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 43.0 · ceil 112.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 72.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 72.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NYJ allows 32.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jameson Williams has gone over 72.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (32.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 36.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 57.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.5%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-4.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars-107
-4.2% EV
Model vs market (over)+11.3%
Our model puts the over at 61.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (57.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.