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Detroit LionsJameson Williams
#1 · WR · 6' 1" · 184 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 85.7 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJameson Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
While St. Brown and Williams will be reprising their key pass-catching roles in 2026, TeSlaa figures to see an uptick in volume in his second pro campaign. Though St. Brown is entrenched as Detroit's clear-cut WR1, Williams will have ample opportunity in his fifth campaign as a pro to make a mark from a fantasy perspective. The 2022 first-rounder is coming off a 2025 regular-season in which he recorded career-highs in catches (65), targets (102) and receiving yards (1,117) en route to notching seven TDs in 17 games.
Verdict
vs 81.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency32argues against it
Projection
98.4 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 103.6 · L10 89.7 · med 81.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 66.0 · ceil 116.8
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 81.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 |
Situational splits
Over 81.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Isiah Pacheco out-16.0 REC YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
77.7 REC YDS
50% over 81.5
With (6g)
93.7 REC YDS
50% over 81.5
Sam LaPorta out+30.7 REC YDS when he sits
Without (6g)
101.0 REC YDS
67% over 81.5
With (6g)
70.3 REC YDS
33% over 81.5
Last matchup — @ CHI
Jan 4, 2026
8thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 47.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jameson Williams has gone over 81.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 34.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.