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Detroit LionsJameson Williams Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jameson Williams has gone over 17.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 17.2 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJameson Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
While St. Brown and Williams will be reprising their key pass-catching roles in 2026, TeSlaa figures to see an uptick in volume in his second pro campaign. Though St. Brown is entrenched as Detroit's clear-cut WR1, Williams will have ample opportunity in his fifth campaign as a pro to make a mark from a fantasy perspective. The 2022 first-rounder is coming off a 2025 regular-season in which he recorded career-highs in catches (65), targets (102) and receiving yards (1,117) en route to notching seven TDs in 17 games.
Verdict
vs 17.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency36argues against it
Projection
19.0 FS(×1.10 context)
L5 19.2 · L10 18.0 · med 18.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.3 · ceil 23.1
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 25% | 3/12 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Isiah Pacheco out-1.8 FS when he sits
Without (6g)
16.3 FS
33% over 17.5
With (6g)
18.1 FS
67% over 17.5
Sam LaPorta out+4.3 FS when he sits
Without (6g)
19.3 FS
50% over 17.5
With (6g)
15.0 FS
50% over 17.5
Last matchup — @ CHI
Jan 4, 2026
2ndof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 10.8 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jameson Williams has gone over 17.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most FS of 32 teams (10.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Jameson Williams research
Jameson Williams — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Williams Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Williams Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Williams Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.