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Detroit LionsJameson Williams Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jameson Williams has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.3 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJameson Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Williams and the rest of the Lions' air attack had a quiet afternoon, as Jared Goff threw for just 170 yards overall. Williams was efficient on his two touches, but he finished with a new season low in receiving yards. The 2022 first-round pick, who's averaging 16.7 yards per reception on the season, will likely be busier in a Week 10 matchup against the Patriots in Germany next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency42neutral
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
6.3 TGT(×0.99 context)
L5 6.2 · L10 6.3 · med 6.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 100% | 7/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 5.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs NE
Nov 15, 2026
21stof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 5.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jameson Williams has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 21st-most TGT of 32 teams (5.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Jameson Williams research
Jameson Williams — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Williams Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Williams Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Williams Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.