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Detroit LionsJameson Williams
#1 · WR · 6' 1" · 184 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 62.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJameson Williams isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Williams ended up leading the Lions in receiving yards on the day while checking in second to Amon-Ra St. Brown in receptions and targets. The fourth-year speedster also delivered the biggest catch of the day, recording a seven-yard touchdown grab with 4:35 remaining that proved to be the game-winning score. Williams has recorded all five of his touchdown receptions on the season within the last three games, and he has at least Sunday's yardage tally in three of the last four heading into a Week 9 road matchup against the Dolphins.
Verdict
vs 48.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency36argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
67.1 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 71.8 · L10 62.4 · med 49.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 45.4 · ceil 86.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 48.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 48.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
25thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIA allows 37.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jameson Williams has gone over 48.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 24.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 50.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-4.9% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-114
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)+21.8%
Our model puts the over at 71.6% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (51.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.