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Denver BroncosJarrett Stidham
#8 · QB · 6' 3" · 215 lb · 1 games
Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Auburn
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 133.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJarrett Stidham isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Stidham remains the favorite to back up Bo Nix (ankle), but Ehlinger looked good in spring practices and could turn Denver's QB2 battle into a full-fledged competition if Ehlinger continues to impress during training camp and the preseason. Stidham hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since 2023, but he started Denver's AFC Championship Game loss to the Patriots this past season after Nix sustained a fractured ankle. Stidham's struggles in that game (133 passing yards, one touchdown pass and two crucial turnovers) may have helped open the door for Ehlinger to win the backup job in 2026.
Verdict
vs 132.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency100supports it
Projection
133.0 PASS YDS
L5 133.0 · L10 133.0 · med 133.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 133.0 · ceil 133.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 51 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 101 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Last 201 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Season1 game
100%over
1 over · 0 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 100% | 1/1 | ||
| 132.5Current | 100% | 1/1 | |
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 | ||
| 0% | 0/1 |
Situational splits
Over 132.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Last matchup — vs NE
Jan 25, 2026
28thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 188.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 1 games, Jarrett Stidham has gone over 132.5 PASS YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (188.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.