Denver Broncos

Jarrett Stidham Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jarrett Stidham has gone over 22.5 RUSH YDS in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Auburn
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 23.0 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutJarrett Stidham isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Sam Ehlinger pushed Stidham during training camp for his spot on Denver's depth chart behind starter Bo Nix, and the team opted to keep three quarterbacks on its initial 53-man roster, but at least for now, Stidham is second in the pecking order. Unless Nix gets hurt at some point, neither Stidham nor Ehlinger would be expected to get any snaps in a reasonably close game.

Verdict

vs 22.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

24.8 RUSH YDS(×1.08 context)

L5 23.0 · L10 23.0 · med 23.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 23.0 · ceil 23.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
22.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 22.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 22.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs JAX

Sep 20, 2026

8thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

JAX allows 38.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Jarrett Stidham has gone over 22.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 8th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (38.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.