Denver Broncos

Jarrett Stidham Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jarrett Stidham has gone over 8.5 FS in 1 of his last 1 decided games (100%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Auburn
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 8.6 FS · our line

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OutJarrett Stidham isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Stidham remains the favorite to back up Bo Nix (ankle), but Ehlinger looked good in spring practices and could turn Denver's QB2 battle into a full-fledged competition if Ehlinger continues to impress during training camp and the preseason. Stidham hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since 2023, but he started Denver's AFC Championship Game loss to the Patriots this past season after Nix sustained a fractured ankle. Stidham's struggles in that game (133 passing yards, one touchdown pass and two crucial turnovers) may have helped open the door for Ehlinger to win the backup job in 2026.

Verdict

vs 8.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Consistency100supports it

Projection

8.6 FS

L5 8.6 · L10 8.6 · med 8.6

Consistency

Steady

floor 8.6 · ceil 8.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 51 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 101 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Last 201 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Season1 game

100%over

1 over · 0 under

Low confidence95% CI 21%–100%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
	100%	1/1
8.5Current	100%	1/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — FS per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%1/1Low

Last matchup — vs NE

Jan 25, 2026

30thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

NE allows 13.3 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 1 games, Jarrett Stidham has gone over 8.5 FS 1 of 1 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most FS of 32 teams (13.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.