New York Giants

Jaxson Dart Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaxson Dart has gone over 22.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ole Miss
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 22.1 FS · our line

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OutJaxson Dart isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Harbaugh highlighted Dart's ability to "live in a lot of different worlds," taking looks from under center, shotgun and pistol, which "opens up" play action, RPOs and designed quarterback runs that can take advantage of the second-year quarterback's talents as a runner. Dart impressed as a rookie and now enters Year 2 with a coaching staff willing to lean into his athleticism with built-in designed movement and RPO concepts. His true upside will likely depend on what New York's pass-to-run ratio looks like, and how successfully he's able to stay on the field after taking too many hits as a rookie. Harbaugh said he "trust[s]" Dart's ability to better protect himself in Year 2.

Verdict

vs 22.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency64supports it

Projection

22.4 FS(×1.02 context)

L5 21.3 · L10 22.4 · med 23.4

Consistency

Steady

floor 19.4 · ceil 26.3

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2011 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Season11 games

55%over

6 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	73%	8/11
	55%	6/11
	55%	6/11
22.5Current	55%	6/11
	45%	5/11
	36%	4/11
	27%	3/11

Last 11 games — FS per game vs. line 22.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 22.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%6/10Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Cam Skattebo out+0.3 FS when he sits

Without (6g)

22.3 FS

67% over 22.5

With (5g)

22.0 FS

40% over 22.5

Last matchup — vs DAL

Jan 4, 2026

1stof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

DAL allows 22.2 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaxson Dart has gone over 22.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 55% across the full season. DAL has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 1st-most FS of 32 teams (22.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.