New York Giants

Jaxson Dart Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaxson Dart has gone over 18 FS in 9 of his last 10 decided games (90%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ole Miss
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 22.5 FS · PrizePicks line

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QuestionableConfirm Jaxson Dart's status before the game.

Injury:: Left Knee - MCL Sprain

Dart underwent X-rays that returned negative, and an MRI scheduled for Tuesday should either confirm or negate the initial diagnosis of an MCL sprain. The promising young quarterback logged just one offensive series Monday before getting hurt while throwing a third-down pass. Per Rapoport, Dart is expected to miss "some time," though he will likely be able to return this season if the injury is indeed a sprained MCL and there is no other significant damage. In the likely scenario that Dart does need to miss some games. Jameis Winston will be lined up to work as New York's starting quarterback.

Verdict

vs 18 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Hot overFireFactor 57/100· model 87% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line87supports it

Consistency65supports it

Projection

23.5 FS(×1.02 context)

L5 21.4 · L10 23.3 · med 24.3

Consistency

Steady

floor 19.5 · ceil 26.5

Matchup

small sample

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

90%over

9 over · 1 under

Medium confidence95% CI 60%–98%

Last 2012 games

83%over

10 over · 2 under

Medium confidence95% CI 55%–95%

Season12 games

83%over

10 over · 2 under

Medium confidence95% CI 55%–95%

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 18.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 18 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%6/6Medium

Away67%4/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days82%9/11Medium

Next matchup — @ LAR

Sep 22, 2026

7thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

LAR allows 22.1 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaxson Dart has gone over 18 FS 9 of 10 decided times (90%) — versus 83% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most FS of 32 teams (22.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 83%.