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Denver BroncosJaylen Waddle
#17 · WR · 5' 10" · 185 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 65.5 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylen Waddle isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After a completely non-descript Broncos debut in Week 1, Waddle bounced back with a signature performance in Denver's come-from-behind victory. The veteran wideout led his team in all of receptions, receiving yards and targets by a wide margin, and the highlight of his afternoon was a spectacular 49-yard contested catch early in the second quarter that took the ball down to the Jaguars' one-yard line. The caliber of performance was emblematic of why the Broncos traded for Waddle this offseason, and it may serve as a launchpad for his role in the offense moving forward.
Verdict
vs 60.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
78.5 REC YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 65.2 · L10 65.8 · med 62.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 39.0 · ceil 95.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 60.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 60.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
24thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 37.7 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaylen Waddle has gone over 60.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 32.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 57.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.4%
Our model puts the over at 62.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (57.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.