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Denver BroncosJaylen Waddle Targets
Stats updated: Sep 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jaylen Waddle has gone over 6.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.6 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJaylen Waddle isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Waddle's regular-season Broncos debut was as miserable as his final line suggests, as the prominent offseason addition finished last in receptions and yards among Denver players that recorded at least one catch. One of the two targets Waddle couldn't corral was a key third-down drop early in the third quarter, although he was hardly the only underwhelming component of a pass-catching corps that produced a modest 131 total receiving yards. More productive performances are surely ahead for Waddle and the Broncos' air attack, with the first opportunity for atonement coming in a Week 2 home showdown against the Jaguars on Sunday.
Verdict
vs 6.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency60supports it
Projection
7.3 TGT(×1.08 context)
L5 6.6 · L10 6.7 · med 7.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 5.8 · ceil 8.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 15/15 | ||
| 87% | 13/15 | ||
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 6.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 | ||
| 0% | 0/15 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — vs JAX
Sep 20, 2026
26thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
JAX allows 4.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jaylen Waddle has gone over 6.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Jaylen Waddle research
Jaylen Waddle — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Waddle Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Waddle Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Waddle Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.